A Week of Escalation (Dec 29 – Jan 3):
On Sunday, the US carried out airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against the Kataib Hezbollah armed group, in response to the recent death of an American contractor two days before in Iraq.
On Tuesday, the US embassy in Baghdad, Iraq (aka “the Green Zone”) was attacked by Shiite protesters in retaliation to the US’ airstrikes that killed 25. The US stressed to the demonstrators not to breach the compound but otherwise did not engage. On Tuesday evening, some tents have sprouted outside the embassy and the protesters claimed they’re planning a “sit-in” until “until American troops leave Iraq and the embassy is closed.”
The airstrikes were the largest from the US in several years with the Iraqi government condemning the US attack as a “flagrant violation” on its sovereignty. Baghdad will now be reconsidering its relationship with the US-led coalition, meanwhile, the US is deploying 750 additional troops to Iraq.
On Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei responded to President Trump’s taunts.
Early on Thursday, Secretary of Defense Mark Esper said the US was prepared to take preemptive action against Iran or its proxies if it receives intelligence of an imminent threat.
We did not have to wait long for those preemptive actions.
Late Thursday night/early Friday morning, President Trump ordered the assassinations of Qasem Soleimani, the leader of the elite Quds force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Mahdi al-Muhandis, founder of the Iran-backed Iraqi militia Kataib Hezbollah, while they were in Baghdad.
Put simply: the United States declared war on Iran.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei announced a three-day period of mourning and promised: “strong revenge awaits the killers of General Soleimani.”
Expect to see the Iraqi government with a strong rebuke, if not an outright demand that the US withdraw from the country. Notably, Trump doesn’t see any value in the US’ presence in Iraq, so he may welcome such a request.
In less than a week, the US has flouted Iraqi sovereignty twice in order to achieve its goals – including an attack at the capital’s international airport – and Baghdad is not likely to forget it. Either way, we can expect a strong (and violent) response from Tehran, but it is a semi-encouraging sign that at least one side is taking a moment to breathe before further escalation.
Americans do not want a war with Iran. Trump is only doing this because he believes starting a war is the surest way to re-election and a road away from impeachment.
Don’t let him get away with it, and drag us into another unwinnable war.
Call your representatives today and tell them there shall be #NoWarWithIran.
And later this year, vote for anyone but him.
This post will be updated as more information becomes available.