Third Culture Queen vol. 27
The Baghdadi is dead, Brexit won't end, and Neoliberalism is on the run
Happy Monday, my Third Cultured folk!
I hope you’re fairing better than California is at the moment.
My partner and I are lucky to live in the City because San Francisco is the only county in the region not under a red-level warning / at-risk of losing power service. But, even on our side of the Bay, heavy brush fires are popping up wherever the wind can find a big enough collection of dry grass.
If that wasn’t dystopian enough, rich people can hire their own firefighters now.
Globally, the world looks a lot like California, but for other reasons. Namely, protests against neoliberalism, uprisings against authoritarianism, and daily doses of war.
From capitalism to communism, it looks like everyone royally f***ed up.
(Good luck in 2020, Democrats!)
Kyle
PS – If you’re looking for a couple of fun reads:
Okra binds us all. (Bitter Southerner)
Sometimes in politics, you have to beat a tai chi master’s ass. (Deadspin)
Three Things to Know:
The US killed the leader of ISIS over the weekend. Unsurprisingly, President Trump’s surprise withdrawal from NE Syria complicated the operation to the point where it almost didn’t happen. This is a win for the Trump administration – and the global anti-ISIS coalition – but the caliphate itself prepares its members for the death of leadership, so the impact is negligible.
Another military note, Microsoft beat out Amazon for Pentagon’s JEDI contract.
Oh, Donald Trump is set to rip up another arms-control treaty
Brexit was extended (again) until January 31, or sooner if the UK can get its act together.
The world is fed up: Algeria, Bolivia, Catalonia, Chile, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Haiti, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Iraq, Lebanon, Netherlands, Peru, and Russia.
South America’s Autumn of Anger (US News)
Superpower Struggle
American Empire
Hard Power
A geopolitical earthquake has shaken US leadership in the world — Russia and China stand to benefit (CNBC)
Three weeks ago, Stent attended the 15th annual gathering of the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi, where Putin sets the agenda each year before an international audience. “The message we received,” said Stent, “was that the West is on the decline, Pax Americana is over, and at the dawn of this new era, Russia, China and India will lead a new ‘democratic’ multipolar order.”
How (Not) To End Endless Wars (LobeLog)
Three presidents have now used the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force – originally intended to authorize the war against al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan — to justify 41 operations in 19 countries, with minimal congressional oversight or involvement and often in violation of international law. The public does not want to be involved in these wars, and Congress should not fund them without an open, public debate and vote.
Pentagon, With an Eye on China, Pushes for Help From American Tech (NYT)
Its goals include finding alternatives to silicon for manufacturing and packaging small “chiplets” together instead of making big monolithic chips.
Much of the recent urgency stems from China’s growing stature as a chip innovator. Designers there have developed chips for sensitive applications such as supercomputers.
Breakup of Tech Giants ‘on the Table,’ U.S. Antitrust Chief Says (WSJ)
China tops world in unicorns as Ant Financial, ByteDance, Didi Chuxing lead US$1.7 trillion market (SCMP)
Officials Battle Over Plan to Keep Technology Out of Chinese Hands (NYT)
Next month, the bureau is expected to announce an initial set of restrictions on exporting some technologies, including quantum computing, 3-D manufacturing and an algorithm that guides artificial intelligence, an official from the bureau said. While those restrictions are a start, they are not enough to satisfy the president’s more hawkish advisers.
Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria
Afghan rivals to meet in China after U.S. talks stall (Reuters)
Iraq president reveals Trump fears; warns of war, ethnic cleansing (Axios)
US military ‘will be tested’ after Syria withdrawal (Military Times)
Trump Lifts Sanctions Against Turkey, Voicing Confidence in Cease-Fire (WSJ)
US military struggles to find a strategy amid sudden policy changes in CENTCOM region (Military Times)
Trump’s Retreat in Syria: More Proof the U.S. Doesn’t Have the Power to Dictate World Events (Ghion Journal)
Turkey's quest for autonomy and the Western reaction (Daily Sabah)
Turkey is violating international law. It took lessons from the U.S. (WaPo)
When a superpower decides it no longer wants the job (CSM)
At issue, as in Syria, is not whether there should be U.S. forces on the ground to forestall further advances there or elsewhere in Eastern Europe. It is the deterrent importance of America’s superpower commitment, its political and diplomatic presence, and its voice.
The longer-term question is whether there might be a return to American superpower engagement. Mr. Trump seems to enjoy broad support on at least one issue: That in the wake of the long and still-unresolved war in Iraq, the U.S. should steer clear of major military operations overseas. But the strong bipartisan criticism of his pullout from Syria, especially over the evident gains for Messrs. Erdoğan, Assad, and Putin, suggests that the effects of a more fundamental disengagement could be causing alarm.
Battle of the Fading Hegemons (Project Syndicate)
Great Powers Invest in Infrastructure. The West Was the Prime Example. (Stratfor)
Anyone wondering how Sino-American competition will play out could do worse than to watch the infrastructure.
Great powers have always invested in infrastructure. The earliest governments, formed 4,000-5,000 years ago along the Tigris, Euphrates, Nile, Indus and Yellow rivers, all paid close attention to irrigation. Around 500 B.C., the Persians built a royal road from Susa in southwest Iran to Sardis near the Aegean coast and tried to dig a canal at Suez. Rome, of course, built its famous roads and aqueducts, and in the seventh century, China's Tang Dynasty rulers linked the Yellow and Yangtze rivers with the Grand Canal. Only great states, with great revenues, could fund and maintain such projects, and the crumbling of roads and silting-up of canals was always a sign of state failure.
As the ice melts, military ambitions in Alaska heat up (Juneau Empire)
Trump Administration Diplomacy: The Untold Story (WhiteHouse.gov)
“We’ve reconvened ‘the Quad’ -- the security talks between Japan, Australia, India and the United States that had been dormant for nine years,” said Secretary of State Pompeo. “This will prove very important in the efforts ahead, ensuring that China retains only its proper place in the world.”
"My responsibility, for a start, is to help countries see the world for what it is.”“And there’s no shortage of truth to be told. The truth is that Iran is the aggressor, not the aggrieved. The truth is that China is a strategic competitor at best that uses coercion and corruption as its tools of statecraft.”
We Need an Export-Import Bank at Full Strength Now (Inside Sources)
Congress recently approved a continuing resolution that included a short-term reauthorization of the U.S. Export-Import Bank. That was a necessary step toward supporting American jobs and small businesses—but it was only a step.
Manufacturers need a robust, long-term reauthorization of the Ex-Im Bank that ensures the agency has the quorum it requires to operate at full strength so that American companies can compete and win sales overseas.
China’s Belt and Road
Amid crises, Xi seems set to uphold Party's rule at secretive China conclave (Reuters)
Plenums, as such Communist Party meetings are formally called, are generally held every autumn. The upcoming plenum will be the fourth since the last Party congress in late 2017.
It is a closed-door meeting of the party’s Central Committee, which comprises about 370 people and is the largest of its elite bodies that rule China.
Some expected the fourth plenum to have been held last autumn, but it was not, sparking speculation in Beijing of disagreements at the top of the party about the direction of the country.
It is key for Beijing to use the occasion to cast the Chinese political system as meritocratic, unchallengeable and superior to Western democracy, said Wang Jiangyu, director of the Asian Law Institute at the National University of Singapore.
Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Xinjiang
Amid crises, Xi seems set to uphold Party's rule at secretive China conclave (Reuters)
Plenums, as such Communist Party meetings are formally called, are generally held every autumn. The upcoming plenum will be the fourth since the last Party congress in late 2017.
It is a closed-door meeting of the party’s Central Committee, which comprises about 370 people and is the largest of its elite bodies that rule China.
Some expected the fourth plenum to have been held last autumn, but it was not, sparking speculation in Beijing of disagreements at the top of the party about the direction of the country.
It is key for Beijing to use the occasion to cast the Chinese political system as meritocratic, unchallengeable and superior to Western democracy, said Wang Jiangyu, director of the Asian Law Institute at the National University of Singapore.
Protecting The Belt And Road (Seeking Alpha)
With the BRI and key transport corridors passing through countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States and the Western Balkans the threat of devastating natural disasters and earthquake in particular takes on new dimensions.
This is especially true if investment is made in infrastructure to further open up key transport corridors, but these are located in some of the most earthquake-exposed territories of Eurasia-if not the world.
To give an example of the scale of the vulnerability, the BRI has not yet been completed but 10,000-plus trains a year already pass through railways from China to Europe.
The amount of disruption from an earthquake in Kazakhstan or Uzbekistan could be economically catastrophic.
“Embedded in the nakedness of any emperor is the forgetting of quotidian violence, of violations that we have not only forgotten, but forgotten that we have forgotten: a doubled refusal to remember, a loss of memory with exponential force.”
– Ashon Crawley(@ashoncrawley)
European Erracticism
Europe is failing to stand up for multiculturalism and democracy (The Guardian)
Despite all the focus on Brexit there was not one but three decisions made at the recent European council that were of high significance to the future of Europe and the world. And a failure to act with conviction to defend liberal values could be seen across each.
First, the EU struck a deal with Boris Johnson that endangers economic cooperation in Europe.
Second, with Turkey having attacked Kurdish-controlled areas in Syria, the EU chose the easy path of condemnation over action, declining to pursue either tough economic sanctions, military assistance to the Kurdish resistance or peacekeeping forces.
Third, EU leaders reneged on historic promises to the peoples of the Balkan region, declining, under pressure from France, to begin accession talks with North Macedonia and Albania.
The EU Risks Being Crushed Between the U.S. and China (Bloomberg)
European Commission in EU Defense Industrial Policy (Carnegie Europe)
Once Beaten and Imprisoned, Kosovo’s Leader Now Has Greater Test (Bloomberg)
Now the strategically important nation, which declared independence from Serbia in 2008, is at the center of a struggle for influence in the Balkans contested by Russia, the European Union, China and Turkey.
When it comes to geopolitics, Kurti doesn’t mince words about who’s stoking tensions in the Balkans: It’s Vladimir Putin.
“But what most needs thwarting is this archaic way of looking at foreign policy—as a Manichaean struggle for influence between the United States and its allies, on the one hand, and the forces of darkness on the other.”
– Robert Wright, Politico
Russian Revisionism
Hard Power
Decoding Russia's difficult relationship with the US (Daily Sabah)
In the Munich Security Conference in 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a historic speech in which he harshly criticized American efforts to promote American values across the globe and strengthen its primacy through the adoption of unilateral policies. Putin made it clear that the dissolution of the Soviet Union was a historic mistake, and his mission would be the rejuvenation of Russia as a formidable great power. Russian leaders mistakenly assumed that following the end of the Cold War there would be no need for NATO to exist as a collective defense alliance. Russian leaders argued in favor of the formation of a pan-European security organization that would replace NATO as the prime venue to discuss European security. One particular Russian priority was that Western powers recognize Russia as a great power and redefine the security structure in Europe in close cooperation with Russia. Russian decision-makers believe that Western powers promised Russia not to enlarge NATO toward Russian territories in return for Russian acquiescence to German unification and united Germany's ascension to NATO. Despite such Russian expectations, NATO has continued to enlarge closer to the Russian border.
Trump and the Retreat of the American Empire (Counter Punch)
Russia-Africa summit opens in Sochi (Middle East Monitor)
Central African Republic considers hosting Russian military base (The Guardian)
Russia accounted for 39% of Africa’s arms transfer over last decade (CSIS)
Putin Has a Dream of Africa (Foreign Policy)
Tsars and pharaohs: Leadership in great power competition (Atlantic Council)
Putin Enters Contest for Africa After Humbling U.S. in Mideast (Bloomberg)
Putin aims to boost Moscow’s clout with Russia-Africa summit (WaPo)
Putin Conquered the Middle East. The U.S. Can Get It Back. (Bloomberg)
Yet Putin wouldn’t have achieved nearly as much were it not for another critical asset: his ability to capitalize on American mistakes, and to cultivate a reputation for decisiveness just as many Arab regimes, from Egypt to the Gulf, have grown worried about America’s reliability.
There would not have been an opportunity for Russian meddling in Libya, for example, had the U.S. and its allies not left behind a disastrous security vacuum after overthrowing the Muammar Qaddafi regime in 2011. Similarly, Russia’s emergence as a central player in Syria began not in 2015, but in 2013, when Obama carelessly drew a “red line” against the use of chemical weapons by Assad’s military, declined to enforce that red line when it was breached, and then had to turn to Moscow to broker a face-saving agreement to defuse the crisis.
All of this has been happening against the backdrop of American retrenchment from the Middle East under two presidents. That retrenchment may be wise or foolish, or some mixture of the two, but it has fractured U.S. relationships by leaving key partners uncertain about what role Washington will play in the future.
Russia and its engagement with Southeast Asia (Observer Research)
Rising Regions
Eurasia
Iran Is Losing the Middle East, Protests in Lebanon and Iraq Show (FP)
Today, Iran seems to be winning the long game. Its proxy in Lebanon prevailed in last year’s parliamentary elections. In Syria, Iran managed to save its ally, President Bashar al-Assad. In the past several years, Iran has also gained a lot more power in Baghdad through its proxies, including the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the Shiite militias created to fight the Islamic State.
However, in its four-decade plan, Iran overlooked an important point: a socioeconomic vision to maintain its support base. While exhausting every opportunity to weave itself into the region’s state institutions, the Iranian regime failed to notice that power requires a vision for the day after. As events unfold in the region, Iran is failing to rule. Iraq and Lebanon are good examples.
Iran created proxies in both countries, gave them power through funding and arms, and helped them infiltrate state institutions. Today, state institutions in Iraq and Lebanon have one main job: Instead of protecting and serving the people, they have to protect and serve Iranian interests.
Is Afghanistan Still India’s “Achilles Heel” in Central Asia? (Geopolitical Monitor)
What Is Turkey Really After In Syria? (LobeLob)
Erdogan believes that a historical wrong was done to Turkey after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire. He sees the old Ottoman territories as the natural sphere of Turkey’s influence. These territories stretch from the Balkans all the way to North Africa, all areas in which Turkey has involved itself. Furthermore, he believes in his historic mission to restore the old Ottoman glory, albeit in an indirect way rather than through outright territorial expansion.
In short, Turkey’s actions in Syria should be seen as the first steps in the unfolding of a new era of regional competition, rivalry, and possibly even conflict. This should not come as a surprise. The events of the last two decades, especially since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Western intervention in Libya, and the civil war in Syria, have collapsed four Middle Eastern governments and upset regional balances of power. They have also opened new opportunities for key regional states to try expanding the spheres of their influence.
Erdogan Has No Idea What He’s Doing in Syria (Foreign Policy)
Turkey’s Crackdown on Kurdish Mayors Could Backfire (Foreign Policy)
Indo-Pacific
From trade deals to climate change, middle powers are steadying the ship even as Donald Trump is rocking it (The National)
In real terms, a middle power is not about being mid-sized; the term is not a reference to geographical area or even GDP. A generally accepted definition of a middle power comes from a 2012 thesis by a King’s College London PhD candidate. It says a middle power is "a state actor which has limited influence on deciding the distribution of power in a given regional system, but is capable of deploying a variety of sources of power to change the position of great powers and defend its own position on matters related to national or regional security that directly affect it”.
In Ancient Ceremony, Japan's Emperor Naruhito Proclaims His Enthronement To The World (NPR)
Naruhito officially assumed the throne. He is the 126th emperor in a line of hereditary monarchs that is believed to go back 1,500 years in Japan.
To mark the proclamation, in accordance with tradition, Abe's government also pardoned some 550,000 petty criminals. In 1989, upon the death of Emperor Hirohito, Naruhito's grandfather, more than 10 million people received amnesties and pardons. The following year, when Akihito ascended, another 2.5 million pardons were handed out.
Malaysia the Latest Country to Ban Abominable Over Controversial Map of South China Sea (Vulture)
At one point in the film, a map of the South China Sea is shown bearing the “nine-dash line,” a boundary China has unilaterally declared to lay claim to most of the sea. However, parts of that same body of water are claimed by Malaysia, Brunei, Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan, and the movie’s decision to depict that line of demarkation has lead to a growing release nightmare for the film.
Malaysia’s censorship board initially agreed to permit Abominable to premiere on November 7, if the image of the map was removed from the version screening in their country. However, Universal Studios, which is distributing the film everywhere but China (Pearl Studio is Abominable’s Chinese distributor) has refused to make the cut.
Global South
Argentina’s center-left Peronists celebrate return to power (AP)
Egypt ordered North Korean arms—and covered it up—while on the UNSC (Quartz)
Venezuela wins UN human rights council seat despite record of abuses (The Guardian)
Non-State Factors | Cities, Clergy, Climate & Corps
1.5+ million packages are delivered in NYC every single day. The roads can’t take it.
A recession will occur in the next two years, predicts 63% of financial officers in big cities and 49% of financial officers in larger midsized cities. (Axios)
AKA – congestion pricing works: “Air pollution associated with traffic has dropped by more than a third inside London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ).”
Facebook and Zuckerberg had a busy week in DC! Here’s what you need to know:
We watched Zuckerberg’s Libra testimony so you don’t have to (Digital Trends)
Google cracked Quantum Computing. Folks are comparing it to the Wright Brothers.
In this case, a mathematical calculation that the largest supercomputers could not complete in under 10,000 years was done in 3 minutes 20 seconds, Google said in its paper.
Israeli archaeologists uncover stunning mosaics and glass windows but remain stumped by the identity of the ‘glorious martyr’ to whom the 6th-century basilica was dedicated.
