"The Great Lockdown"
California and New York lead regional collectives in defying Trump and DC | #TC60
Welcome to Third Cultured, a Queer Reading of the American Empire through crisis-after-crisis — written by yours truly, Kyle Borland.
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The IMF has (unimaginably) named our crisis, “The Great Lockdown.”
(FWIW – my vote was for “The COVID Contraction,” but why make something new when you can skip any semblance of effort and copy/paste from history?)
Its severity is projected to fall somewhere between its siblings the Great Depression (Aug. 1929–March 1933) and the Great Recession (Dec. 2007–June 2009), so we are likely in for a rough couple of years rather than months. (Graphic: Bloomberg/IMF)
Let’s be honest: the IMF’s recovery forecast is pure propaganda. Borderline mythology.
How are economies going to survive a holiday season under lockdown? Governments all over the world are already preparing for a resurgence in November/December and, unlike them, I believe it’s likely we’re asked to return to our quarantined status.
However, before we tackle a daunting winter, we’ll be finding ways to cohabitate with COVID while it’s warm out. California Governor Gavin Newsom (D) outlined six key indicators that will guide the state as it considers lifting the stay-at-home order:
“The ability to monitor and protect our communities through testing, contact tracing, isolating, and supporting those who are positive or exposed;
The ability to prevent infection in people who are at risk for more severe COVID-19;
The ability of the hospital and health systems to handle surges;
The ability to develop therapeutics to meet the demand;
The ability for businesses, schools, and child care facilities to support physical distancing; and
The ability to determine when to reinstitute certain measures, such as the stay-at-home orders, if necessary.”
This week, California, Oregon & Washington also announced the West Coast States Pact that – in absence of federal assistance or leadership – ensures a collective response to reopening the West Coast’s regional economy. Similarly, governors on the East Coast announced the Multi-State Council – including New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts – to determine their own regional reopening plan.
“We don’t have a king; we have a president.”
— New York Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY)
“Science and public health, not politics, must be the guide.”
– California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), a day after President Trump incorrectly claimed that he had “total authority” to reopen to the US economy.
Together the ten states represent approximately one-third of the US population and roughly 35 percent of GDP. Trump’s response was to bark that he had “total authority” over states and the economy reopening (which he walked back less than 24 hours later). The only power he seems to have is the accelerating imperial decline. I’m all for regionalism (it’s the most effective governing level), but I hope Americans are aware of the implications of choosing state over country. Based on Newsom’s “nation-state” talk, even the patricians are done with DC, so moves like these from governors aren’t meant to simply comfort – they’re power plays.
If it wasn’t clear before COVID, then I hope it’s now been drive home for you: a world – maybe even a nation – led by DC’s “United” States of America is a thing of the past.
Stay safe and healthy, beautiful people. And, thanks for reading.
If you’re seeing this newsletter for the first time, you can subscribe here.
xoxo,
Kyle (@kgborland)
PS – Pardon my French, but Millennials are fucked.
What little data exist point to a financial tsunami for younger workers. In a new report, Data for Progress found that a staggering 52 percent of people under the age of 45 have lost a job, been put on leave, or had their hours reduced due to the pandemic, compared with 26 percent of people over the age of 45. Nearly half said that the cash payments the federal government is sending to lower- and middle-income individuals would cover just a week or two of expenses, compared with a third of older adults. This means skipped meals, scuppered start-ups, and lost homes. It means Great Depression–type precarity for prime-age workers in the richest country on earth.
"Give yourself courage, have faith."
— Ada Zanusso, a 103-year-old who survived the coronavirus, to others who fall ill
American Empire and Other Wars
A new report suggests the US should follow Israel’s “gray zone” strategy when it comes to counterbalancing Iran.
Democrats scored a surprising win in Wisconsin’s State Supreme Court race showing the Biden campaign with some much-needed momentum in a key swing state, particularly with suburban women and rural blue-collar workers. The victory is also a key voting rights win moving toward the November election.
Libya’s internationally recognized government regained control of strategic coastal cities from the rebels with the assistance of the Turkish Air Force.
Meet the man with the world’s largest private air force. He lives in Illinois. Do you know what’s not a good sign of societal health? Privatization of militaries. Mercenaries are only loyal to the highest bidder.
Russian jets flew in the Alaskan Air Defense Identification Zone for four hours before being intercepted by the US and Canada. Moscow is becoming increasingly aggressive in the Arctic, the theatre it has the greatest upper hand.
Saudi Arabia announced a two-week ceasefire in Yemen, but the Houthis have since been accused of breaching the unilateral truce 241 times in 48 hours. However, talks between the two sides continue as COVID cases arrive.
The renminbi’s campaign to internationalize reached $285 billion in daily trades in 2019, the eighth most traded currency. The US dollar does $5.8 trillion/day.
With Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) out, who will be the new standard-bearer for progressives and/or populists: Rep. AOC (D–NY), Stacey Abrams, California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D), Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.), Nina Turner, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R), Rep. Justin Amash (I-Mich.), or someone completely out of left-field?
COVID-19 Updates
Total Confirmed: 2,000,984; Total Deaths: 128,071; Total Recovered: 501,206
US Cases Confirmed: 615,406; US Deaths: 26,164; Recovered: 38,879
America surpassed Italy for the world’s most deaths on Saturday, April 11, but the federal government is hoping the peak will pass in the coming weeks. Just two weeks after the first 1,000, more than 21,000 have died. That didn’t stop Trump from halting US payments to the WHO to “investigate its poor response to the COVID outbreak” aka “dig for a reason to shift blame away from Trump.”
IMF predicted a 3 percent worldwide economic contraction in 2020, making “The Great Lockdown” the worst recession since the Great Depression.
More than 16 million Americans have filed for unemployment in three weeks. That number is expected to reach 25 million by the end of this week, obliterating all 22 million jobs created since the Great Recession in 2009. To put it the costs into perspective, in California alone, day one of state unemployment payments, including the $600/week from the federal government, cost $336 million in payouts. (Graphics: Axios)
China registered 108 new infections on Monday, its largest single-day increase since March 5, which Beijing says are mostly imported from Russia. China has also tightened restrictions around published research concerning the origins of COVID-19.
India extended the world’s largest national lockdown until May 3.
In Europe, Germany has effectively manged its COVID response, including the passage of a $1.2 trillion relief plan, but its EU allies are frustrated at Berlin’s reluctance to financially assist its fellow member states when its wealth its directly connected to the Eurozone.
MIKTA middle powers – Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey and Australia – affirmed their commitment to working in full solidarity against COVID.
OPEC, allied states led by Russia, and the US agreed to a record oil output cut to prop up global oil prices, curbing 20% of the world’s oil supply by May 1. Trump welcomed the deal which includes non-OPEC+ like the US, Brazil, Canada, Indonesia, and Norway contributing up to 4-5 million bpd to the cuts.
Russia may deploy its military to fight COVID as the situation grows more dire.
The UK has missed three opportunities to buy PPE in bulk with the EU.
Turkey announced it would release tens of thousands of prisoners due to COVID.
Tech titans Apple and Google are teaming up to build track-and-trace into iOS and Android.
The majority of cases in New York originated from Europe, not China.
The US Navy announced the first active-duty death on USS Theodore Roosevelt.
US Senator Bernie Sanders (D-VT) proposed an emergency version of Medicare for All to respond to the mounting healthcare costs of COVID. Now that he’s no longer campaigning, the senator can seize the moment his policies were made for.
US Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) unveiled an Essential Workers Bill of Rights for frontline workers during the coronavirus pandemic.
What do the countries with the best COVID responses share? Women leaders.
A Cultural Thing
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