Beijing Wants Trump to Win

Weaponizing US debt obligations and GOP senators are in trouble | #TC62

May 04, 2020

Welcome to Third Cultured, a Queer Reading of the American Empire through crisis-after-crisis — written by yours truly, Kyle Borland.

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Trump is convinced China wants him to lose his re-election campaign, which only confirms his narcissism. Beijing is irritated by Trump but it’d rather have a historical embarrassment in the White House while they try to jump over the Thucydides Trap than an acolyte of The Blob. The president’s paranoia is driving his election campaign strategy of blaming Beijing for the coronavirus pandemic and the administration is looking into using other tools to “punish” China, including sanctions, canceling US debt obligations, and drawing up new trade policies. The threat of US debt obligations, in particular, has put the White House on the defensive as it undermines the credibility foundation of the global financial system: the US dollar.

Quincy Institute @QuincyInst

"The Quincy Institute, populated by scholars from both the Right and Left, has risen up to directly challenge the idea of a necessary militarized “liberal world order” to secure peace across the globe." Great piece by @Vlahos_at_TAC:

theamericanconservative.comThe Blob Attacks: Gaslighting or Just Gasbagging? | The American ConservativeAfter a 75-year-run of failure, the foreign policy elite is on the wane, with some clearly taking it harder than others.

That is not a risk anyone should take with more than 64,000 Americans dead and the economy in shambles. However, the Trump campaign has very little room to win re-election at the moment other than hitting China, blasting Democratic hypocrisy on Tara Reade, and reminding folks of Biden’s unpopularity. The president’s greatest asset in the 2016 campaign was how much people personally hated Hillary Clinton. People don’t feel that strongly Joe (at all).

They’re so rattled the president threatened to fire his campaign manager, Brad Parscale, after recent polls showed him tied or losing to Biden in the key swing states of Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Senate Republicans are worried – and preparing to lose – even in Georgia.

There’s plenty of news below, so open this email in your browser to catch it all.

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Stay safe and healthy, beautiful people. And, thanks for reading.

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xoxo,

Kyle (@kgborland)

PS – Don’t miss #GivingTuesday tomorrow! Some LGBTQ+ organizations to support.

"Maduro's days are numbered."
— U.S. envoy for Venezuela Elliott Abrams on Thursday, April 30, 2020
"Maduro's days are numbered."
— Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on February 24, 2019 (434 days ago)

American Empire & Other Wars

Brexit drama will never end. London is blocking Brussels from setting up a mini-embassy in Belfast, Northern Ireland to ensure the nation follows the EU single market and customs rules, as agreed to in the Brexit deal.
During the Russia-Saudi oil price war, Trump called MBS and delivered an ultimatum: OPEC starts cutting oil production or he wouldn’t stop US lawmakers from passing legislation to withdraw U.S. troops from the kingdom. The president risked a 75-year alliance – there are three thousand US troops in the country, and the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet protects regional oil exports – but his gamble scored a big diplomatic victory for the White House. However, with the success of the Permian Basin (even with current declines) and the shift to clean energy, the alliance may have run its course.
Germany has banned Hezbollah from operating on its soil, designating it as a terrorist organization that bans the group’s symbols at gatherings and in publications or in the media.
In Israel, the White House said it could not support West Bank annexations unless the governing coalition promised to negotiate over a Palestinian state and fully endorses the president’s Middle East peace plan. Notably, the Palestinian Authority rejected the plan and withdrew from negotiations after the US moved its embassy to Jerusalem. Ambassadors of the U.K., Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark, along with the deputy ambassador of the EU, issued a formal warning against Israel for its plans to continue its annexations and any action within in the West Bank would constitute a clear violation of international law. The Arab League condemned it.
NATO’s eastern flank is losing close to $1 billion in defense-enhancing projects to fund Trump’s border wall.
New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) is set to expire in February 2021 – capping long-range ballistic missiles and nuclear-equipped heavy bombers – and, in typical Trump fashion, the previous deal was not up to his liking. Although Russia would like to extend the treaty until 2026 without revisions (an option written into the original signed by Obama and Medvedev in 2010), Trump has three complaints: 1) It doesn’t cover tactical nuclear weapons, 2) It doesn’t cover Russia’s new nuclear delivery systems, and 3) It doesn’t constrain China (who has invested heavily in growing and modernizing its arsenal). However, with 91 percent of the world’s nukes and both Russia or the US holding 20x Beijing’s arsenal, China has next to no incentive to join New START or any the deal. Unsurprisingly, Trump is fixated on including China and his obsession could unleash a new arms race that everyone is sure to lose. Currently, Moscow and Washington are in a spat over low-yield nukes on submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM). Meanwhile, China just put two new subs into service.
The Philippines protested China’s organization of a Manila-claimed region in the disputed South China Sea as Chinese territory.
The race for technological supremacy will be determined by who leads in 5G, AI, quantum computing, and now a vaccine for COVID-19. The primary competitors are China and the United States but don’t count the EU, India, or Russia out yet.

"You can't just leap over things and get into a situation where you're really tempting a rebound. That's the thing I get concerned about.”
— Dr. Anthony Fauci, Director of National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Diseases

COVID-19 Updates (Graphic: Axios)

Total Confirmed: 3,507,053; Total Deaths: 247,473; Total Recovered: 1,125,308
US Cases: 1,188,122; US Deaths: 68,598; Recovered: 178,263; Tested: 7,053,366
2022 – The pandemic is expected to come in waves for up to two years.
A German company and US-based Pfizer have begun human trials for a vaccine.
Brazil’s president’s reaction to his nation’s death toll: “So what? I'm sorry. What do you want me to do? I'm Messiah but I don't do miracles.”
Congressional Democrats and Republicans are clashing over the details of the next coronavirus relief bill. House Democrats want to ensure at least $1 trillion in relief funds for struggling cities and states while the GOP is laser-focused on protecting businesses from COVID-related liabilities, which is a nonstarter for Democrats. After $3 trillion in relief, Beltway gridlock is back in action.
COVID was not man-made or genetically modified, according to the DNI. Trump and conspiracy theorists are lying to shift blame.
Drug cartels are going bankrupt under quarantine, but they’re adapting.
Global emissions will fall 8 percent this year, the largest ever recorded, but experts warn against celebrating quarantine-driven results because it means nothing without extreme measures to transition to cleaner energy sources.
New York City’s subway will cease 24-hour service to disinfect trains at night. Transit agencies across the country are struggling fiscally and operationally during the Great Lockdown. (Graphic: Streetsblog)
Rome turned 2,773 years old last week.
Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin has been diagnosed with COVID.
South Korea saw no new domestic cases on Thursday for the first time.
The EU’s economy contracted by -3.8% in Q12020. France saw -5.8%.
The UK has passed its peak in cases and is preparing its reopening plan.
Trump is going ahead with a campaign rally in Arizona. (He needs his fix.)
Turkish President Ergodan sent a letter to President Trump hoping to soothe bilateral relations given the cooperation during COVID. However, he stressed that Ankara still plans to proceed with deploying Russia’s S-400 missile system.
UN estimates show, for the first time since 1998, global poverty rates will rise with 8 percent of the world’s population — half a billion people — pushed back into destitution because of the pandemic.